Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s bear market ended at the June 2026 low and argues that the cryptocurrency has entered an accumulation phase despite renewed weakness below $80,000. In its latest Bitcoin research note, Galaxy said diminished selling pressure, improving long-term technical structure and a stronger monetary-debasement thesis make the current market attractive for buying and holding BTC.
The call was originally distributed to Galaxy clients on October 22, when Bitcoin traded at $81,391, and was published publicly several days later. Bitcoin has since moved lower, trading around $80,000 on October 27, but that decline has not yet crossed the technical threshold Galaxy says would challenge its recovery thesis.
Galaxy Points to a Long-Term Technical Reclaim
Galaxy’s central technical argument is Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. The week ended October 18 marked the fifth consecutive close above that level, while the June decline had already tested the 200-week moving average. Galaxy interprets the combination as evidence that the June low near $58,525 marked the cycle bottom rather than the beginning of another leg lower.
That interpretation broadly overlaps with other technical frameworks that have recently identified Bitcoin as moving out of accumulation but still below major confirmation levels. One model has placed an important Bitcoin inflection threshold near $87,000, illustrating that a recovering long-term structure does not mean Bitcoin has already completed a bullish breakout.
Galaxy also argues that speculative positioning has been substantially reduced. Basis traders and macro-focused investors that accumulated ETF and futures exposure into the October 2025 peak have cut those positions by more than half, according to the firm’s analysis. Galaxy views that reduction in fast-money positioning as evidence that a major source of potential selling pressure has already left the market.
ETF activity remains more mixed in the shorter term. U.S. spot funds recently posted a $301.2 million weekly net inflow after two negative weeks, but the result included more than $773 million of withdrawals during the final two sessions. Positive weekly ETF creations therefore support Galaxy’s accumulation argument only partially, because daily flows remain highly volatile.
Fed Decision Tests the Debasement Thesis
Galaxy’s fundamental case centers on U.S. fiscal conditions rather than an immediate monetary-policy pivot. The firm points to federal debt above $40 trillion, a fiscal 2026 deficit near $2 trillion and elevated Treasury yields as pressures that could eventually encourage monetary debasement. Its thesis is that persistent fiscal stress strengthens the relative appeal of Bitcoin’s fixed supply even while high interest rates remain a short-term headwind.
That tension is visible in the current rate environment. U.S. Treasury yields above 5% have already raised the opportunity cost for Bitcoin treasury strategies, while the Federal Reserve began its October 27-28 meeting with markets widely expecting rates to remain at 3.75%-4.00%. A pause would not necessarily signal easier monetary conditions, because policymakers are still confronting persistent inflation and the possibility of additional tightening later this year.
Galaxy does not treat its bullish view as unconditional. Its clearest technical invalidation signal is a weekly Bitcoin close below the 50-week moving average, recently around $76,540, followed by failure to reclaim that level within a month. The firm also identifies ETF holdings falling below their July trough of 1.22 million BTC as another development that would weaken its thesis.
For now, Galaxy’s argument is that Bitcoin is in post-bear-market accumulation, not that downside risk has disappeared or a new all-time high is imminent. The next test is whether Bitcoin can preserve its long-term moving-average recovery while navigating tighter financial conditions, uneven ETF flows and a Federal Reserve that remains focused on inflation.
