Standard Chartered is once again raising its tone on Bitcoin: the bank now believes its $100,000 year-end 2026 target could prove too low, following the U.S. Treasury’s decision to expand its long-term debt buybacks. The comment came from Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital-asset research, as Bitcoin responds to renewed signals of market liquidity.
On August 19, the Treasury announced that it would increase the size of its long-dated Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation between September 9 and November 4. The measure is intended to provide liquidity to the 10- to 30-year segment of the Treasury market after a sharp rise in yields.
A Forecast That Has Changed Several Times
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin outlook has undergone several revisions over the past year. Kendrick initially maintained a much more aggressive view, with a $300,000 target for 2026, before cutting it to $150,000 in December 2025 and subsequently to $100,000 in February 2026.
The February revision came after a period of heavy outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and weaker demand from corporate treasuries. At the time, Kendrick also warned that Bitcoin could potentially test $50,000.
The scenario has now shifted again. For Kendrick, the Treasury’s decision could support risk assets by improving liquidity conditions and easing some of the pressure on long-term Treasury yields. The market’s initial reaction was significant: long-term bond yields declined and Bitcoin posted a sharp advance.
Liquidity Versus Underlying Risks
The argument, however, does not amount to a new guarantee that Bitcoin will reach $100,000. Treasury buybacks remain relatively small compared with the size of the U.S. government bond market, and analysts have warned that they do not resolve structural issues such as the fiscal deficit, rising debt levels or inflationary pressures.
For traders and portfolio managers, the change in outlook reinforces the importance of monitoring ETF flows, Treasury yields and monetary-policy decisions alongside Bitcoin’s price. Standard Chartered’s forecast remains bullish, but its own evolution illustrates how quickly the market outlook can change when liquidity conditions shift.
Over the longer term, the bank also maintains a $500,000 Bitcoin target for 2030, although it has pushed back the timeline compared with some of its earlier projections.
