XRP hovered around $1.36, even as exchange outflows continued to tighten the amount of token supply readily available for trading. Under normal conditions, that kind of supply compression might have supported a stronger recovery, but in this case it failed to generate lasting upside.
Instead, the token remained trapped in a narrow range because weaker demand kept offsetting the impact of lower exchange balances. What emerged was a market that looked structurally tighter on the supply side, yet still lacked the conviction needed to break higher.
Tightening supply has not been enough to change direction
By late March, XRP’s circulating supply had become increasingly concentrated, with large holders controlling roughly 83.7% of the token base while Binance and other venues recorded notable net outflows since late February. That created a visibly tighter market structure, but the reduction in available inventory did not translate into a stronger trend.
The missing ingredient was demand. Speculative participation continued to cool, with futures open interest falling to about $2.45 billion from a peak of $10.94 billion in July 2025, while spot ETF activity also weakened and pulled cumulative inflows down to roughly $1.21 billion. That combination left XRP in a position where supply looked constrained, but buying pressure remained too soft to force a breakout.
On-chain signals added another layer of complexity. Around 60% of XRP supply, or roughly 36.8 billion tokens, was estimated to be sitting underwater, creating a possible overhang if price weakness triggers more defensive selling. At the same time, mid-sized holders appeared to be moving tokens out of exchanges, a pattern that can suggest accumulation, but not one that has yet produced a decisive upward move.
Technical resistance is still controlling the market
Price structure continues to reflect that hesitation. XRP has repeatedly struggled to break through the $1.34 to $1.36 area, while trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, all of which are now acting as resistance rather than support. That repeated rejection has made the current range look less like consolidation before a breakout and more like stalled momentum.
Momentum indicators tell a similar story. The RSI has stayed below neutral and the MACD has continued to reflect negative momentum, reinforcing the idea that recent trading activity has not carried the kind of bullish conviction needed to shift the broader structure. In other words, tighter supply alone has not been enough to reverse sentiment.
Macro pressure is also still hanging over the market. Geopolitical tensions, weak risk appetite, and concern over further Federal Reserve tightening or sustained commodity strength have all contributed to a backdrop that keeps XRP vulnerable to sudden volatility rather than steady expansion. In that environment, even constructive supply dynamics can lose influence when broader flows stay defensive.
XRP remains in a market shaped by contradiction. Supply is tighter, but demand is weaker; whales are dominant, but conviction is limited; and until price reclaims key moving averages, the token remains exposed to macro-driven swings rather than positioned for a clean upside reversal.
