Kalshi has raised its valuation to $11 billion after a massive $1 billion funding round reported in November 2025. The leap is striking, especially considering that just weeks earlier, a previous $300 million infusion had valued the company at $5 billion. The rapid jump positions Kalshi as a major force in the push to professionalize prediction markets, confirming both its institutional traction and the scale of its trading activity.
A fast-growing leader in regulated prediction markets
A prediction market functions like a financial mechanism where participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events, translating collective bets into probability signals. Kalshi, co-founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, has attracted top-tier investors such as Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, with backing from Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos Capital and Neo.
In October 2025, the platform recorded $4.4 billion in monthly volume, pointing to an annualized figure of around $50 billion — a dramatic rise from roughly $300 million the year before. Kalshi now operates in more than 140 countries and has built integrations for both institutional clients and retail participants, including partnerships with Robinhood and market-data provider Barchart.
The company has also reinforced its operational infrastructure by migrating USD Coin payments and custody to Coinbase Institutional, improving liquidity, compliance, and settlement processes. A key growth catalyst was obtaining regulatory clarity after a federal ruling that reaffirmed its ability to offer event contracts as regulated financial instruments.
Still, regulation remains a major pressure point. Kalshi faces state-level legal challenges that could affect open positions — including a pending case in Massachusetts that threatens nearly $650 million in active contracts. This uncertainty sits in sharp contrast to the institutional strength gained through its integrations and upgraded custody framework.
Polymarket stands as Kalshi’s main competitor, targeting a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion after a $1 billion raise at an $8 billion pre-money valuation. In October 2025, Polymarket posted $4.1 billion in volume — slightly below Kalshi’s figures. The platforms differ fundamentally in strategy: Kalshi prioritizes regulatory compliance and traditional-finance alignment, while Polymarket leans on blockchain infrastructure and more permissive access.
As sector momentum accelerates, industry voices point to the scale of what’s coming. As Farokh Sarmad, cofounder of Myriad, put it, “the ceiling is only rising for prediction markets, and we haven’t seen anything yet.”
Kalshi’s new $11 billion valuation reinforces the idea that prediction markets are becoming a professionalized financial segment, now handling volumes that rival niche sectors in traditional finance. The company’s next phase will hinge on resolving state-level regulatory challenges and maintaining sustainable volume growth — outcomes that will determine whether institutional adoption continues to expand.
