An anonymous Polymarket trader using the handle “coldsway” lost $11.6 million over the first ten days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after taking concentrated positions against several underdog outcomes. The drawdown shows how quickly event-market exposure can punish oversized bets on favorites.
The account placed 15 wagers during the tournament’s early phase, winning four and losing eleven. Winning positions returned roughly $4.23 million, while losing trades totaled about $15.86 million, producing a net shortfall of approximately $11.6 million.
Concentrated Bets Turn Against Favorites
The largest single loss came from a $4.9 million position that Morocco would not win its July 4 match. Morocco won, making the stake worthless and turning one upset result into a multimillion-dollar loss.
Other significant losing exposures included a $3.1 million position against Canada and multiple mid-to-high six-figure bets tied to Portugal, Belgium and Spain. Those outcomes left the trader exposed to a cluster of failed favorite-side assumptions.
The account’s performance illustrates the risk of treating perceived favorites as low-risk positions. In prediction markets, even high-confidence outcomes can carry binary settlement risk when a single result decides the contract.
A separate high-stakes trader, “FlickRaw,” lost about $4.2 million in less than 24 hours in mid-June. That drawdown followed a $2.7 million wager on the Netherlands to beat Japan, which ended 2-2 after a late equalizer, and a $1.5 million bet on Belgium versus Egypt that finished 1-1.
🚨BREAKING: Someone just put $1M on Spain to WIN their match vs Cape Verde today
This pays out is $1,085,943.48 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/7ODo3dJ7Pl
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026
World Cup Markets Expose Concentration Risk
World Cup markets attracted heavy volumes during the group stage, drawing large positions on teams viewed as stronger or more predictable. A few draws and upset results were enough to create asymmetric losses for traders with concentrated exposure.
For market participants, the lesson is operational as much as directional. Large single-account positions can become fragile when models underestimate variance, late-game events or underdog resilience, making position sizing as important as probability assessment.
For platforms, high-volume sporting events can increase liquidity while also sharpening settlement and price-discovery risks. When a small number of large traders dominate activity, their positioning can influence short-term market depth and contract pricing.
The episode is likely to renew attention on risk controls around major sporting events. Position limits, margining standards and clearer disclosure of order size relative to market liquidity could become more important safeguards for both traders and operators.
The broader reminder is simple: prediction markets convert real-world uncertainty into tradable exposure, but they do not eliminate uncertainty itself. Heavy exposure to favorites can still produce rapid, material losses when tournament outcomes break against consensus expectations.
