An analyst’s review of Upbit trading data in South Korea suggests roughly $5 billion of XRP has been sold over the past ten months, creating a concentrated supply overhang that the analyst links to recurring price weakness and a persistent Upbit discount. The same review argues that these repeated selling waves have influenced broader market pricing, especially when large blocks hit the tape in short windows.
At the same time, the market is showing conflicting inputs, with XRP holding a tight range near $1.48 while localized selling pressure and broader on-chain signals point in opposite directions. That divergence is forcing traders and risk teams to treat near-term direction as conditional rather than trend-driven.
Upbit Selling as a Structural Overhang
The analyst attributes the drag to algorithmic selling on Upbit that ran for approximately ten months and amounted to an estimated $5 billion in XRP sales. In that framing, the persistence of the flow matters as much as the size, because ongoing sell programs can suppress rebounds and keep pricing pinned below peer venues.
The same analysis ties the Upbit pressure to a reported 47% peak-to-trough decline on some timeframes and a recurring 3% to 6% discount on Upbit versus other exchanges. Operationally, that discount is presented as a symptom of imbalance on a key KRW liquidity hub that can export weakness into global pricing.
A particularly acute episode highlighted by the analyst involved more than 50 million XRP sold on Upbit in roughly 15 hours, followed by a 16% weekend drop that propagated to other venues. On the technical side of the same review, the analyst points to a head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline near $1.44 and identifies $1.42 as pivotal support, with a breakdown below $1.42 framed as opening downside risk toward $1.12.
Countervailing Signals From Outflows and Whale Accumulation
Despite the selling narrative, the report also flags supply tightening signals, noting that exchange outflows spiked on February 17 to about 63.84 million XRP, described as roughly 6.5 times larger than comparable prior episodes. In institutional terms, that kind of withdrawal burst is often read as inventory leaving venues, which can reduce immediate sell-side availability.
The analyst also highlighted accumulation among a specific cohort, stating that wallets holding 1 million to 10 million XRP increased combined balances from 3.76 billion to 3.78 billion, an addition of roughly 20 million XRP representing about 31% of the observed exchange-specific change. This is positioned as a medium-term constructive signal that could help absorb intermittent sell programs if it persists.
Sentiment indicators in the review reinforced the mixed setup, with the Smart Money Index crossing above its signal line on February 15, a pattern the analyst noted had preceded a notable January rally. In the analyst’s interpretation, the signal supports the idea that conviction may be rebuilding even while the Upbit flow remains a practical headwind.
For traders and custodians, the report effectively frames a binary path, where holding $1.42 support alongside continued inventory drawdowns could set up a re-test toward $1.91 and higher levels cited at $2.13 and $2.41. Conversely, renewed algorithmic selling on Upbit or a clean break of the neckline/support zone would reintroduce downside risk toward $1.12, making execution planning and venue selection critical as localized dislocations interact with broader supply tightening.
