The Bitcoin network’s security model faces a forward-looking but tangible risk from quantum computing, where sufficiently capable machines could undermine today’s cryptography and open a path to large-scale key compromise. BTQ Technologies says it is already testing a standards-based post-quantum implementation to give institutions a practical migration path.
Bitcoin relies on ECDSA signatures and SHA-256 hashing, and the text points to Shor’s and Grover’s algorithms as the main theoretical pressure points as quantum capability advances. Estimates cited in the text suggest 25–30% of BTC may be at heightened risk because it sits in older or reused addresses that are more exposed to “harvest now, decrypt later” strategies.
Where the risk concentrates
One operational concern highlighted is the mempool window, where transaction propagation can expose public keys and potentially create a time-bounded target if cryptographically relevant quantum computing arrives sooner than expected. The same analysis also flags Grover’s algorithm as a potential future threat to proof-of-work resilience that could raise double-spend risk if countermeasures lag hardware progress.
BTQ’s proposed mitigation is positioned as standards-led rather than bespoke, with the company stating it implemented NIST-standardized post-quantum signatures (ML-DSA) to replace ECDSA in its Bitcoin Quantum fork. In BTQ’s framing, “standards adoption” is the anchor for interoperability and institutional comfort during any transition.
BTQ completed a Bitcoin Quantum testnet and a security audit in Q4 2025, using that environment to validate post-quantum signatures and a “quantum-native” proof-of-work design. Those milestones are presented as the baseline for controlled verification before any wider rollout.
On the software side, Bitcoin Quantum Core 0.2 is described as demonstrating wallet creation plus ML-DSA-based transaction signing and verification. BTQ is positioning these features as proof that post-quantum signing can work end-to-end in a Bitcoin-like workflow.
The roadmap outlined is explicitly phased, with enterprise pilots planned for Q1 2026, a mainnet rollout with migration tools targeted for Q2 2026, and broader exchange and wallet integration across 2026–2027. BTQ also says it is extending the work into stablecoins, payments, identity systems, and quantum-native consensus research.
Operational implications for custodians and treasuries
The text notes positive reactions from some market participants and research firms, alongside early inclusion of “quantum-security exposure” in thematic institutional products. It also cites a projection that the post-quantum cryptography market could reach about $1.9 billion by 2029, pointing to growing commercial demand.
For trading desks, custodians, and corporate treasuries, the operational takeaway is framed as immediate hygiene plus long-range planning: legacy or reused addresses are treated as a priority exposure, and migration should minimize on-chain key exposure during sensitive windows. The text’s core recommendation is to embed quantum-transition playbooks and vendor due diligence into standard custody governance.
Finally, the near-term proof points are BTQ’s Q1 2026 enterprise pilots and the planned Q2 2026 mainnet migration, which would test tooling, auditability, and coordination across exchanges and wallets. The text emphasizes treating quantum risk as a measurable operational category with defined timelines, audit requirements, and incident-response procedures.
