Crypto platforms can pull in new users fast, yet keeping them active beyond the first month remains a stubborn execution gap. A new look at Polymarket is putting that retention problem under a brighter spotlight, because the prediction market appears to keep cohorts coming back. Data compiled by analytics firm Dune and market maker Keyrock tracked monthly cohorts of new active users and measured how many returned to trade in later months. Across 275 crypto projects spanning networks, DeFi platforms, wallets and trading apps, Polymarket’s average retention outperformed over 85% of protocols. For operators, repeat usage is emerging as the true growth moat in an industry where liquidity and engagement are tightly linked.
Why prediction markets are becoming a retention playbook
The findings also highlight how rare sustained usage is across the sector. When liquidity depends on frequent participation, weak retention can signal shallow growth even if top-line onboarding looks healthy, because activity fails to compound month over month. A comparison chart cited Token Terminal, showing Polymarket’s retention rate stacked against other crypto entities. That contrast helps explain why product teams are scanning for mechanisms that create habitual activity rather than one-time transactions. Retention, in this framing, becomes a governance and revenue issue as much as a growth metric, shaping how platforms prioritize new features. In that context, prediction markets are being reframed as an engagement engine instead of a niche trading product.
Prediction markets differ from many crypto apps because participation is tethered to real-world events. Elections, sports competitions and macroeconomic releases create recurring moments that give users a reason to return, and the cycle resets as new markets open and old ones settle. The report argues this event-driven structure can encourage more high-frequency participation than short-term speculation, keeping attention focused on outcomes that resolve on a schedule across multiple cycles. Crucially, it may reduce reliance on incentives to sustain trading, since interest is pulled back by the calendar of events rather than by promotions. For strategists, the event loop looks like a built-in retention flywheel that standard spot and DeFi experiences struggle to replicate.
That logic is already showing up in platform roadmaps. In December, Coinbase and Gemini, wallet service Phantom, and clearing provider Bitnomial Clearinghouse signaled moves into prediction markets. Bloomberg reported Coinbase will launch tokenized equities and prediction markets, after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong shared alleged leaks of the exchange’s prediction markets site. Bitnomial received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enabling it to launch prediction markets and offer clearing services for other platforms. Gemini launched an in-house prediction market across all 50 states and said it wants a one-stop app for crypto trading and prediction markets. Retention is becoming a product mandate, especially outside high-volatility periods when engagement often fades.
