Bitcoin’s recovery above $90,000 in the second half of 2025 returned a large segment of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) investors to profitability, with a referenced group showing a weighted average cost basis of $90,146. The rally restored profit precisely as volatile capital flows strained ETF liquidity and tested market depth.
Liquidity stress, ETF flows and a structural turning point
In November 2025, U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs registered net outflows estimated between $3.5B and $3.79B, setting the tone for a month defined by redemptions, abrupt shifts in flows and intermittent relief. IBIT experienced its largest daily withdrawal on Nov. 19 at $523M, while monthly redemptions ranged between $1.26B and $2.00B, confirming sustained pressure on spot ETF liquidity.
Yet flows were not unidirectional. On Nov. 7 the market recorded $240M in inflows that interrupted a six-day outflow streak totaling $2.9B, followed by a later session where U.S. spot ETFs absorbed $222.6M and IBIT contributed $246.1M, demonstrating liquidity elasticity at key moments. Late November also showed more moderate injections of $128.64M and $21.12M on consecutive days, softening structural deterioration but not reversing the trend.
A brief technical clarification: an ETF is a regulated vehicle that tracks an asset’s price and offers exposure without requiring direct custody. In this instance, the mix of major redemptions and sporadic inflows compressed short-term liquidity, heightened volatility and left cost-basis cohorts dependent on price recovery above the $90K threshold.
IBIT commands a dominant position across bitcoin investment products, holding between 572K and 777K BTC — more than $90B in value as of Oct. 2025 — equivalent to roughly 3.25% to 3.658% of total supply. It became the fastest financial product to reach $10B, $70B and $80B AUM, fueling annual fee projections of $187.2M to $244.5M, surpassing even the firm’s equivalent S&P 500 ETF revenue structure.
The breakout above $90K represented not only a market milestone but a psychological inflection for investors with entry near $90,146, who shifted from unrealized drawdown to renewed solvency and optionality, reducing forced-sale probability during liquidity stress. It also reinforced the institutional integration of bitcoin, proving that regulated structures can scale exposure at historically unprecedented speed.
Bitcoin’s recovery above the key threshold rebalanced flow dynamics, restored profitability for a large IBIT cohort, and reaffirmed its structural role inside institutional portfolios.
