Bitcoin’s outlook is becoming increasingly complicated: even with a 71% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut —a scenario that normally boosts risk assets— the market shows signs that BTC could still fall further. The optimism baked into that probability is not enough to guarantee a rebound, and traders now wait for the next major catalyst.

Fed decision becomes the key confirmation trigger

Markets currently price in a 71% chance of a December rate cut, according to CME FedWatch and prediction markets. That expectation already fueled an 8% rebound in Bitcoin, reducing the room for fresh upside driven only by the prospect of cheaper money. Analysts warn that in past cycles, extreme probabilities (90–99%) created inflated forecasts, leading to sharp divergences between price and fundamentals.

The upcoming FOMC meeting and Fed guidance are now the main trigger. A smaller-than-expected cut or a cautious tone could spark a “sell the news” reaction, reversing gains that were already priced in. A 25-bps cut is one of the main scenarios, and markets are preparing for volatility.

Macroeconomic data continues to inject uncertainty. Jobs reports, inflation readings and Fed comments have repeatedly slammed rate-cut probabilities —sometimes down to 49–60%— triggering sudden volatility. At the same time, institutional demand is weakening, with USD 1.26 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling that professionals are pulling back.

On the technical side, Bitcoin has broken key supports at 99,000, 90,000 and 83,000 USD, worsening risk sentiment. A death cross —where the 50-day EMA slips below the 200-day— has now formed, reinforcing bearish momentum. Some analysts outline deeper scenarios, projecting levels near 50,000 USD if selling accelerates and institutional demand continues to thin.

For market participants, the mix of liquidity tied to monetary policy, negative ETF flows and bearish technical signals creates a higher probability of downside in the short to medium term. Traders who entered after the recent rally face the risk that the expected catalyst is already priced in.

Although a 71% rate-cut probability could act as support for risk assets, the blend of volatile macro data, weakening institutional flows and technical deterioration suggests that Bitcoin may face further corrections before any sustainable recovery.