The convergence of three key U.S. macro reports in the week before Thanksgiving could spark sharp swings in Bitcoin, which approaches the date after a steep fall from its October highs. Traders are watching the PPI (Nov. 25) and both the PCE and jobless claims (Nov. 26), since these indicators can reshape expectations for Fed policy and liquidity flowing into risk assets.
Macroeconomic Data That Could Move Bitcoin
The first report is the Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 25, an indicator that often anticipates future inflation pressures. A higher-than-expected PPI typically raises the odds of tighter monetary policy, a backdrop that tends to hurt speculative markets like crypto.
The second report concerns initial jobless claims, also set for November 26. An unexpected increase would signal a weakening labor market and potentially open the door to rate cuts — a scenario that usually supports risk assets. Conversely, persistently strong labor data would bolster a hawkish Fed, pressuring Bitcoin.
The third item is the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. A hotter PCE would reinforce expectations of more aggressive rate action, while a softer reading would revive hopes of monetary easing and improve sentiment for risk-taking.
In simple terms: strong PPI or PCE = higher rates = pressure on BTC, while weaker data = dovish Fed = support for risk assets.
Bitcoin recently fell from an all-time high of $126,272 (Oct. 6) to below $92,000 in mid-November, even briefly dipping under $83,000 before rebounding. Technical indicators showed stress, including a “death cross,” a signal often interpreted as trend deterioration.
JPMorgan analysts estimate Bitcoin’s production cost near $94,000, treating it as a natural support zone, and outline a bullish scenario pointing toward $170,000 in 6–12 months, which would represent a 70–80% rise from current prices. This reflects the tension between deleveraging pressure and the possibility of institutional re-entry.
The data releases arrive during a low-liquidity Thanksgiving week, raising the risk of amplified market reactions. Even small deviations in the numbers could trigger outsized moves, and possible government-related delays add another layer of uncertainty. As expert Ohris M. Greyoon noted, “These reports are not just numbers; they are the pulse that will dictate risk perception and the Fed’s decisions.”
For traders, treasury desks and institutions, the PPI on Nov. 25 and the PCE plus jobless claims on Nov. 26 form the critical trio of catalysts likely to shape expectations for inflation, labor health and the direction of liquidity that could swing Bitcoin.
