Bitcoin (BTC) is not only trading above the levels seen before the FTX collapse—it has firmly left behind the ranges that defined the 2022 crisis. The current rally places the market on an entirely new valuation scale and forces participants to rethink how they interpret price, liquidity, and risk compared with the benchmarks of that turbulent period.
A market that finally breaks with its past
Back in autumn 2022, right before FTX imploded, Bitcoin moved around $20,000–$21,000. The shock that followed dragged the asset down to roughly $15,500–$17,000, far below the November 2021 all-time high of $69,000. Those levels traced the full arc from euphoria to collapse as the market digested one of the biggest failures in crypto history.
btcusd is beyond 3.5 standard deviations from its 200dma
other occasions:
Nov 2018
Mar 2020
Jun 2022— mekhoko (@MEKhoko) November 20, 2025
Today, by contrast, Bitcoin fluctuates in a range between $80,000 and $119,000, with price references often landing near $105,000–$109,000. These values act as a new reference floor for the asset. During the transitions between these milestones, the market’s capitalization moved from nearly $2.9 trillion in 2021 to about $798 billion at the end of 2022—three phases that clearly show the boom, the crisis, and the current recovery cycle.
The projections now circulating include technical targets of $94,988 for 2026, $115,458 for 2030 and nearly $175,000 over a 12-month horizon. These numbers outline potential re-rating scenarios, though they should be seen as estimates, not guarantees.
The fact that Bitcoin has climbed decisively above pre-FTX levels points to renewed institutional demand and a significant rotation of capital. It also brings back a key concern exposed by the collapse: the need for transparent custody practices and verifiable auditing. The push for Proof of Reserves is a direct consequence of the trust lost when centralized exchanges operated in the dark.
For liquidity providers, treasuries and firms managing BTC exposure, this new price band reshapes how risk is measured. Higher levels expand the margin for long-leaning strategies but can also intensify the danger of asymmetric liquidations in leveraged setups. Meanwhile, the revaluation affects incentives for delta-neutral strategies and the selection of collateral assets in concentrated pools.
Regulators aren’t ignoring the lessons of FTX. Authorities and custodians have increased demands for traceability, a shift that may influence reporting requirements, operational costs, and even the core business models of exchanges. From the market’s perspective, Bitcoin’s move into a higher valuation zone reopens debates about whether current flows are sustainable and how dependent the rally may be on external catalysts rather than purely organic liquidity.
Bitcoin has moved far beyond the ranges that defined the FTX era. It now trades in a band that forces a reconsideration of liquidity, custody, and risk frameworks for institutional players and market makers. The durability of this new stage will largely depend on how transparency evolves and how effectively risk-management strategies adapt to the changing environment.
