The Bitcoin Max-Pain zone —the price range concentrating the greatest pressure on large institutional positions— has been identified between $73,000 and $84,000. According to an analyst, this corridor is tied to the cost bases of BlackRock‘s IBIT ETF and MicroStrategy’s treasury, suggesting it could shape liquidity and price behavior in the coming weeks. The finding raises concerns about potential forced sales and volatility spikes in a context marked by monetary policy uncertainty.

Institutional Max-Pain and Its Market Impact

The institutional term “Max-Pain” refers to the price range where major holders face substantial unrealized losses relative to their acquisition levels. Bitwise analyst André Dragosch notes that the $73,000–$84,000 corridor aligns with the entry prices of some of the market’s most influential players, placing IBIT’s cost basis near $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s around $73,000.

FWIW —

Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k.

Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between.

But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 19, 2025

This clustering of cost bases creates a risk channel: a prolonged drop into this zone could trigger internal risk controls and force sales, as institutions move to limit losses. Recently, IBIT logged outflows of $3.3 billion —including a single-day record of $523 million— while Bitcoin tested the upper end of the range, showing how sensitive the product is to redemption waves and shifts in institutional sentiment.

The combination of unrealized losses and persistent outflows sets the stage for a potential “clear-out” of positions, especially if macro conditions deteriorate at the same time. Policy uncertainty amplifies the risk: current data suggests only a 41.8% probability of a rate cut in December, a variable that directly affects liquidity and the decision-making framework of institutional desks.

If Bitcoin enters the Max-Pain range, the move could act as a catalyst for heightened volatility rather than a simple technical signal. Even relatively modest flows —such as adjustments around $1.18 billion— can generate outsized reactions in a market highly responsive to ETF inflows and outflows, raising the likelihood of liquidations and sharp price swings for leveraged traders.

It’s important to differentiate institutional Max-Pain from the traditional options Max Pain that appears at expiries. The institutional version reflects cost bases and pressure to sell from large holders, whereas the options-based version stems from strike clustering and creates short-term, tactical volatility. Options expiries involving notional volumes of $17.5B, $14.6B, or even $40B have historically moved markets, but they don’t exert the same structural influence as institutional cost-pressure zones.

As Dragosch explains, the Max-Pain band can “turn into a fire sale or a deep-discount opportunity,” depending on whether selling pressure outweighs buy-side absorption.

The recognition of the $73,000–$84,000 range shifts market attention back to the intersection of institutional cost structures, ETF flows and macro risk. Its eventual test will reveal whether the market undergoes a cleansing phase or finds a foundation for renewed liquidity and confidence. The next key milestone: the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, which could alter liquidity conditions and directly influence how this zone behaves.