After a drop that pushed Bitcoin below $93,000 and erased the gains accumulated in 2025, the question surrounding the continuity of BTC’s bull market has intensified. This move is already forcing managers and traders to reevaluate positions, as technical signals, institutional flows and market sentiment point to a possible phase change. The shift could also influence the energy demand linked to mining, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
Bitcoin suffered a decisive break of the weekly moving averages area as it lost the cluster of the 50 week SMA and 50 week EMA, a region that has historically marked major market transitions. The 50 week SMA, which measures the average price over the last fifty weeks, is widely used to identify structural trends, and its conversion into resistance increases the probability of continued bearish moves. There is also a rising risk of a death cross, with the 50 day EMA approaching a cross below the 200 day EMA. This pattern is viewed as a classic signal of amplified selling pressure.
An isolated crypto sell-off:
US stock market futures just opened and they are completely unfazed by the crypto decline this weekend.
Even as crypto has lost -$100 billion since Friday, US stock market futures are GREEN.
Meanwhile, gold just opened above $4,100/oz and yields… https://t.co/dv0igUrvzZ
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 17, 2025
Technical Stress and Behavioral Signals
The impact on short term holders is substantial. Approximately 2.8 million BTC that entered the market in the last 155 days are now in losses, the highest proportion since the FTX related collapse. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10 out of 100, a level of extreme fear that signals widespread capitulation and reduces the odds of significant short term liquidity inflows. Major liquidation events also unfolded, forcing the closure of leveraged positions and generating additional downward pressure. For traders, the CME futures gap between $91,800 and $92,700 has become a key short term reference, since these gaps often attract corrective movements.
Capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were substantial during the week, with negative flows estimated between $866 million and $1.1 billion. At the same time, long term holders have distributed more than 452,532 BTC since July, a structural selling wave that reduces historical support from strategic and corporate buyers. This persistent distribution has weakened one of Bitcoin’s traditional stabilizing forces, raising concerns among institutional desks.
On the macro front, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has rebounded to approximately 0.80, placing BTC more in line with technology risk assets rather than acting as a decentralized safe haven. Analysts remain divided. Some argue the drop represents a digestion phase before a new upward leg, while more skeptical voices point to scenarios with significantly lower prices, including a potential decline toward $70,000 on the 2026 horizon. Equity managers have also revised long term targets, with one cited projection cut from $1.5 million to $1.2 million for 2030. These adjustments illustrate a broader recalibration of institutional expectations.
The market is experiencing a phase of technical and flow re-evaluation, with sentiment at historic lows and selling pressures emerging from multiple fronts. This environment complicates the prospects of a sustained recovery in BTC’s bull market in the short term. The next key milestone is the test of the CME gap between $91,800 and $92,700 and the price’s ability to reclaim the 50 week SMA, which will shape the operational stance of traders and managers.
